Week 8: Two Prime Time Match Ups

"Prime Time Rivalries"

#11 So Cal @ #13 Notre Dame: 

This is a playoff game for both schools.  The all-time record in this series is 46-37-5 with a slight edge to the Irish.  This marks the 33rd time these two storied programs have met while both were ranked in the top 25.  Only two other series rivalries can claim that many or more.  Oklahoma/Texas and Michigan/Ohio State.  That's some favorable company!  When both teams are ranked the teams are almost deadlocked, with ND leading the series 16-14-2, but when So Cal is ranked higher they have the edge 20-10-3.  The last time Notre Dame beat So Cal as the underdog when both were ranked was 1995 #17 ND beat #3 USC 28-10. But, that's enough about history, here's the dirt on this year's version of the Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh (shi-LAY-lee), an irish club, made from oak or blackthron sapplings from Ireland:  Notre Dame's offensive success hinges on being able to run the football, they're 11th in Offensive Efficiency.  QB Brandon Wimbushhas thrown for 783 yards with 6 TD's and only 2 INT's.  Their ground game is fueled by a massive offensive line, and that is anchored by the two behomeths on the left side, LT Mike McGlinchey who  stands 6'8 312 and is likely a first round draft pick; beside him is senior left guard Quenton Nelson at 6'5 329 lbs.  Both of these young men are road graders and Nelson is also likely a very high draft pick.  The front five is made up of 4 seniors and a veteran sophomore RT.  The next catalyst to the run game is running back Josh Adams, he's the leading rusher with 776 yards on 86 carries and 5 trips to the zone.  He's averaging a whopping 9.4 yards per carry!  They are extremely good at the zone running game, and he has tremendous vision that accompanies a great first step to get north/south quickly.  Their favorite target through the air is St. Brown who has 15 grabs for 211 yards and 2 TD's.  He's averaging 14 yards per catch.  The offense is 5th in the country rushing for 308 ypg, which has helped them to average 40 points per game, good for 12th nationally in that category.  Defensively ND has had a terrific season, they're 10th in defensive efficiency, they get after the passer, and they have consistently stopped the run.  They did the best job this season of stopping Georgia's vaunted rushing attack.  Their defense will be tested, especially the secondary with potential All-American QB, Sam Darnold of So Cal pitching it around Saturday night in South Bend.  Darnold and the Trojan offense come into the game after struggling at Utah last week.  Darnold has a hugely talented arm, but often times he takes it for granted and throws it into coverage.  He threw off balance a number of times and a better secondary will take those balls away.  Utah was not able to capitalize, otherwise they would've won the game.  At any rate, his favorite weapon offensively is R. Jones III who has scored at least one TD in 13 consecutive games which is tied for the most in CFB currently with Saiquon Barkely of Penn State (you'll read about him later).  I think this is going to be a great game, but Notre Dame wins with good defense and being able to run the football against a Trojan defense that couldn't stop Utah last week, and had trouble tackling in space.  If you give Josh Adams a seam, he's going to make you pay.  Notre Dame 30-So Cal 20.

#2 Penn State vs. #14 Michigan: 

So many headlines, so little time.  This is a really big game, and there are so many sub plots that it's hard to choose.  The most important thing is whether Barkely gets the ball 30 times SAturday night.  If he does, PSU wins.  If he doesn't, and they force McSorley to win the game, Michigan has a chance to win the game.  Apparently there's a white out happening in Beaver Stadium, that will be just a small piece of the pageantry of college football taking place.  The talk will be about the running game of PSU, but the DEFENSE is the leading scoring defense in the country.  They are playing with a lot of heart and discipline, but their biggest test came from Iowa, where they won 21-19 in Aimes.  Iowa's offense doesn't exactly strike fear into the hearts of college football fans.  But, neither does Michigan's offense.  However, Michigan's defense is extremeley good, giving up less than 4 yards per play which is 2nd in the nation, 1st in total ypg with 223.8 and 1st in 3rd down conversions allowing only 21%.  They have a loss against Michigan St.  Both teams have a difficult schedule ahead after Michigan, PSU plays Ohio St and Mich St.  After PSU,  Michigan goes to Wisconsin, and hosts #6 Ohio State.  Michigan's defense has looked good, but, big BUT these are the offenses it has seen- Florida, Cincinati, Air Force, Purdue, Mich St., and Indiana.  Not exactly blowing the doors off.  I think Penn State wins this game easily.  They have a lot of momentum, and have been able to run the ball on everyone.  Trace McSorley should be able to throw the ball a little bit down field and improve his numbers 1397 yards for 13 TD's, and Barkeley the stud RB will find some room and improve his numbers.  Penn State 17-Meeeechigan 6.

Week 7: Games of the Week

Week 7’s top games

College football is at the halfway point, and it has been a really fun ride thus far.  I’ve had a lot of fun watching games and dissecting what’s going on.  This week, my intention is to present to you the top game from each conference, and why I picked it, plus my prediction for the game.  Let’s get rolling:

ACC: GT @ Miami: originally scheduled for a Thursday night game, this one is set to kick off at 3:30 on Saturday.  The reason for this choice should be obvious, this is for 1st place in the Coastal division of the Atlantic Coast Conference.  Miami comes in at 4-0 with a defense that gives up only 17 points per game, which is good for 17th nationally in that category.  That defense will have the tough task of defending one of the most dominant rushing attacks in college football.  GT runs for an average of 396 yards per game, which is good enough for 2nd nationally!  Their primary weapon on offense is the signal caller, Marshall.  He leads the team in both rushing and passing, which is not uncommon in a Paul Johnson style attack.  If you like option football, watch this ball game.  Defensively GT is giving up less than 20 points per game good for 27th nationally.  They’ll have a tough assignment to stop Miami’s Mike Rosier Jr.  He leads the Canes with 1074 yards passing.  His primary target is Braxton Berrios who has caught 282 yards worth of passes. 5 of those catches are a part of Rosier’s 11 TD tosses.  Big news out of Miami is that their leading rusher Walton is out with a season ending injury.

The toughest test for Miami thus far was a 24-20 win against a depleted Florida State squad who is missing their leader.  GT hasn’t played anyone noteworthy and lost to a Tennessee team that looks like it’s imploding.  GT did have a dominant road win in Chapel Hill just a few weeks ago.  Both teams have a sizeable margin of victory average, GT with 23 points per game, and Miami with 20.  One hundred and one years ago this weekend GT beat Cumberland College 220-0, that will not be the case this weekend, but Tech comes away winners, 27-20.

Big 10: Purdue vs. Wisconsin: Jeff Brohm’s Boilermakers are currently 3rd in the West but, with an upset win at Camp Randall they could put a huge wedge in the Big 10 west division.  Brohm is a former Louisville QB, one would think his team would be focused on offense.  Think again, as the Boilermakers have been playing exceptionally well, giving up only 21 points per game.  They lost a tough battle against reigning Heisman trophy winner Lamar Jackson and Louisville, and hung in with Michigan for 3 ½ quarters.  Offensively Purdue will not wow you, but defensively they’ve played really stingy, stout defense.  They will have to keep that up, because the next great Wisconsin running back hit the scene last week, Jonathan Taylor ran for 249 yards at Nebraska!  He has 9 TD’s and is averaging 8 yards per carry.  That massive Badger offensive line continues to mash, and it’s a thing of beauty.  Unlike GT, Wisconsin lines up and says, you know exactly what’s coming, and you still can’t stop us!  Behind that line, Taylor became the FIRST true freshman in Wisconsin football history to rush for 200 yards in a game, earlier this season against Florida Atlantic.  He rushed for over 4,600 yards and over 50 TD’s in high school.  This young man is big time!  They don’t just pound the rock, the QB, Hornibrook has tossed it around for over a thousand yards and 10 TD’s.  They don’t turn it over, so they don’t beat themselves and they run the ball to set up the downfield passing game.  It’s a thing of beauty.  Purdue has played well, but Wisconsin wins this one going away, 38-17.

Big 12: 3 Words: Red River Rivalry.  I shouldn’t have to type anything else...but I am.  OU vs. Texas.  I know, I know, OU lost to a 30 point dog, Iowa State last week, in Norman.  But, isn’t that just like Oklahoma?  Don’t they lose to a team, every year, that they have no business losing to?  Of course they do!  At any rate, they got it out of their system, and they’ll roll over Texas.  But, not without a fight.  Texas has gotten markedly better since Maryland, yep, Maryland ran all over them in week 1.  They played Southern Cal to the wire and lost by 3, and are averaging giving up less than 24 points per game.  In the Big 12, that’s not too bad.  Offensively they’re putting up decent numbers, 34 points per game.  They just haven’t quite found their identity.  Ehliger has thrown for 900 yards and 5 TD’s, but hasn’t quite settled in.  Oklahoma’s problem isn’t offense, it’s defense, they’re 46th in scoring defense, just slightly better than Texas.  This is the week to fix that!  I know, there’s blood in the water, after the trip up game, but, this is still the same team that hung 31 on Ohio St in the Horseshoe.  This team is solid, and they’ll prove it again this week.  Boomer Sooner 30, Hook Em Horns 14.

Pac 12: Upset Alert! Upset Alert! The 8th ranked Fighting Mike Leach’s travel to Berkeley to take on the fighting snowflakes of Cal, er, I mean Golden Bears.  Washington St is tied for 1st place in the PAC 12 North with its neighbor Washington. As with any Mike Leach offense their QB has put up some gaudy numbers so far, Falk has thrown for over 2,000 yards with 19 TD’s and only 2 pics.  He has spread it around this year connecting with 13 different pass catchers, but his favorite target is Martin Jr., with 34 catches for 464 yards and 7 touchdowns.  They’re coming off a big win over Southern Cal and are averaging just under 400 yards passing per game.  Cal’s defense is improved from last year, but are still giving up right at 30 points per game.  Offensively the Golden Bears like to throw it around as well, their leading passer has thrown for just over 1400 yards for 9 touchdowns.  However, their offensive line has struggled at times, and will have a difficult time with the cougar defensive front.  Going into Berkeley will be boring and there probably won’t be a big crowd for 8th ranked cougars, and that alone could make for a sub par performance.  As Corso would say, “not so fast my friend”.  Leach will “swing his sword” and the Cougars will roll, big day for Falk!  52-24 WSU!

SEC:  I wanted so badly to break down the Carolina/Tennessee game, but everyone who reads this will know I’ll pick the Cocks, so I’m going with the Auburn/LSU game.  Lucky for Auburn, they’re playing during the day, those cajuns know how to get down on a saturday night.  This game is important, if you want to know who will finish 2nd in the West behind Bama.  The winner will wear that crown.  Auburn has one loss to defending national champion Clemson (still makes me nauseas to type).  LSU has two bad losses to both Troy and a Miss State (beat down).  But, they beat Florida in the Swamp last weekend.  Who knows which LSU team will show up.  Probably the one who likes their home grown Orgeron, and will fight tooth (if they have any) and nail. Auburn has a 22% win percentage in Baton Rouge, that will improve slightly this weekend with a win over the Bayou Bengals.  They’ve finally settled on a QB in Stidham.  He’s thrown for over 1300 and 7 TD’s, but everyone knows what makes Malzahn’s offense tick is the running game.  They’ve found the spark with a HUGE back, Kerryon Johnson.  This young man is super talented and massive. He’s listed as 6 feet 212 lbs., HA.  That guy is every bit of 6’2 and 225.  He runs like a deer and is just so fluid.  Mr. Football in Alabama as a senior in 2015, he’ll put his stamp on this season with a big day in Death Valley.  Enough about the offense, this Auburn defense has come a LONG way in two years.  Remember when they couldn’t stop a nosebleed?  Me too! Now, they’re giving up only 13 points per game.  That’s good enough for 6th in the country!  LSU doesn’t have enough firepower on offense to keep the ball out of the hands of the Auburn offense and they don’t have enough depth and stamina on defense to stop the running game consistently.  Tigers 28, Bayou Bengals 10

Week 6 or Weak 6?

Ready:
At first glance of this weeks college football lineup, one may assume the action could slow down a bit from the breakneck pace that has gotten us this far.  But, if you're like me, and you love the game within the game, I'm here to tell you why this weekend will be just as enjoyable.

Set: Last nights Arkansas State/GA Southern game was everything I thought it might be.  Let's look at some marquee match-ups for the rest of the weekend

Go:

Tonight: Thursday night football, at times, is advertised as a big match up and then often doesn't deliver.  Tonight will not be that night as the 17th ranked Louisville Cardinals travel to Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, NC to take on the 24th ranked NC State Wolfpack.  If you know anything about this game, you'll know it pits the strengths of the two teams against one another.  Every time Louisville has the football, Lamar Jackson, last years' Heisman winner will stare down one of the better defenses in the ACC.  Both teams come into the game at 4-1, State having lost to a scrappy Gamecock team in Charlotte, has gone on a 4 game winning streak, their only quality win was a 6 point victory @ Florida State.  The pack are scoring almost 35 ppg and giving up 23 ppg.  They're led offensively be their quaterback Finley, and their dynamic do everything Athlete Jaylen Samuels. Finley completes almost 72% of his throws, but 31% of them go to Samuels.  Stop him, and you stop that offense.  Defensively, up front is where the wolf pack shines.  They have two of the best book ends in the country.  They get up the field and rush the passer as good as anyone.  They also have an All-ACC linebacker who led the league in tackles last year.  Their secondary is suspect at times and can be exploited by a talented offense with the weapons that Lousville has.  Lamar Jackson is dynamic and so is that offense.  The Cardinals have lost one game, to #3 ranked Clemson, who possibly has the best defense in the country.  Louisville's defense isn't talked about as much as State's, but it's pretty good in its own right.  Giving up only 25 ppg.  Jackson spreads the ball around more than Finley, and he's also a better runner, and is Louisville's leading rusher and passer.  He's tough to plan for and even more difficult to stop.  Petrino calls one of the best offensive games in today's college world. 
Louisville has never beaten a ranked team on the road (0-6), and State hasn't been ranked in the top 25 since 2010.  They've also lost 5 consecutive games as a ranked team.  Something's gotta give:
Cards 30-Pack21

The rest of the country:

If you look on the surface Saturday might seem bleak to some for big time action, but if you're into scoring, you may want to watch the following:
Iowa St. travels to Norman to take on #3 Oklahoma.  Boomer Sooner Baby!
Georgia travels to Nashville for a slaughter of Vandy Harry Dawgs
Look for TCU to outlast West Virginia in what could be the best game of the weekend behind FSU and Miami.  I know FSU is down a QB, but this one takes me back to the epic match ups of my childhood. So we've got that nostalgia going for us.
Notre Dame and North Carolina should be able to throw up some points

Defensively, if this gets you going, watch the following games for some hard nosed, big hits, and low scoring affairs:
Minnesota at Purdue
Arkansas at South Carolina: it could be a low scoring game if the Gamecocks can continue to defend the run and play great Red Zone defense.
Alabama at Texas A&M.  Probably not low scoring, but A&M can rush the passer, and Bama...I mean it's Bama, great defense regardless.

If Run Game is your thing:
Wisconsin at Nebraskas.  Wisconsin, need I say more?
Michigan St. at Michigan:  Sparty vs. Wolverines, the Big House, this one is being overlooked.  Should be a good game

Airing it Out:  if you enjoy the air raid, tune in:
Cal @ Washington
Washington St. @  Oregon
SMU @ Houston

That's all.  Folks, don't take a Saturday off because on the surface the games don't look great.  There's still great football to be played and it can be enjoyed.  If you know where to look.  Lastly, we wait 10 months to see ball, enjoy it.